At the Washington Post‘s Monkey Cage blog, John Sides reviews the Good Judgment Open consensus on several questions about the GOP’s chances of success in the House and Senate.
Yes, the odds are against the Republicans’ retaining control of the Senate, though they will likely continue to control the House. But it’s still not clear that Trump is (yet) hurting Republicans running for Congress.
The GJ Open consensus predicts that Republicans are likely to lose control of the Senate to Democrats, with only a 38% probability of maintaining control, but are much more likely to retain control of the House (85%). Moreover, these probabilities have not changed much over the last few months, despite rumblings that Trump’s increasingly unconventional candidacy might hurt Republicans in House and Senate races.
Of course, this does not mean that no Republican candidates are in trouble (and perhaps partly due to Trump):
Of the three Senate races currently being forecast, two Republican Senators — Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania and especially Ron Johnson of Wisconsin — are in trouble. In both cases, their estimated chances of winning have trended down at least a little bit. Gov. Pat McCrory of North Carolina has also seen his estimated chance of winning slip below 50 percent.
On the other hand, Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio appears to be in a better position now: His estimated chances of winning have increased over time. This mirrors the trend in his polls, where he currently leads by five points. Of course, the forecast — a 65 percent chance that he will win — suggests this five-point lead isn’t certain to last.
Agree or disagree? Join the Monkey Cage US Election Challenge to make your own forecast on these and many other questions.
John Sides, August 24, 2016, Monkey Cage